Missing gas puts South Africa’s 10-year electricity plan on a knife edge

• The National Transmission Company South Africa's (NTCSA) Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) 2027–2036 report assumes approximately 16.2GW of Eskom capacity is shut down by 2036, including 8.75GW in 2029 and 2030.
• The MTSAO Reference Case still records 13.42GWh and 377 hours of unserved energy by 2036, which are hours in which some electricity demand cannot be met, not a forecast of nationwide load-shedding.
• The five-percentage-point difference between the EAF assumptions is critical when the existing Eskom fleet is being reduced, with a 5% increase in EAF from 66% to 70% by 2031 being a key factor in the report's outcome.